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Your sphere has an "up north" buyer.

Your sphere has an up north buyer — The McKenney Minute Issue #6

Short version: The Up North season just opened, and somewhere in your past-client list is a buyer who once mentioned wanting "a place on a lake someday." Most metro Michigan agents treat the Northern Michigan referral as someone else's deal — that's a mistake. The financing is identical, and you can stay on the relationship through a clean co-broker split. Grand Traverse waterfront sales are up +29% year over year, the 100-mile second-home rule is dead, and 10% down works. Here's your June play.

Full disclosure: I own a place on Mackinaw Bay in Cedarville, so this isn't theoretical for me. I know the pull, I know the math from the homeowner side, and I know what your client is going to ask before they ask it. This week's issue is how to turn a stray "wouldn't it be nice" comment from your sphere into a closed second-home deal by Labor Day — and the financing cheat sheet to handle the questions on the spot.

📈THE 10-SECOND rate read

30-Year Fixed
~6.55%
Down ~10 bps from Issue #5 baseline
10-Year Treasury
4.51%
UP 7 BPS today on a defensive open

Bonds rallied through last week on US/Iran de-escalation — a 60-day memorandum of understanding pulled WTI crude oil under $90 a barrel. Friday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) printed hot at 3.30% annually for April, and bonds barely flinched. That's the tell: rates have already priced in sticky inflation, and the next leg is going to be driven by the labor market, not inflation data. This morning's giveback is positioning ahead of Friday's jobs report, not a trend reversal.

This Week's Catalyst

Friday, June 5, 8:30 AM ET — May Nonfarm Payrolls. The biggest data print of the month. A hot jobs number (above ~190K new jobs) pushes rates higher into next week. A soft print (below ~140K) gives bonds room to break the six-week ceiling we've been pinned under. ISM Manufacturing today and ISM Services Wednesday are the warm-up acts — Friday is the main event.

My take: Floating into mid-week with discipline. The Iran narrative is real and getting stronger, and if a signed deal hits the wire before Friday, oil and yields both improve materially. But Friday's jobs report is the bigger fork in the road — a hot print erases the rally fast. Buyers closing inside 21 days should lock today; buyers closing 30–60 days out can float into Wednesday's ISM Services with a tight trigger ready to pull before Thursday's close. Send me the buyer's closing date and I'll tell you the right window.

🏠THE MICHIGAN number

Grand Traverse Waterfront Sales, Year Over Year
+29%
The year-over-year jump in Grand Traverse County waterfront home sales heading into the 2026 summer season. Lakefront inventory is sitting at roughly 2.9 months supply across direct-waterfront listings, with median list prices in the mid-$400Ks countywide. Leelanau County's median sale on single-family is $688,250. Charlevoix and Antrim are tighter still.

Translation: there are more lake-house buyers chasing less inventory than last June, and most of them are coming from your backyard. Southeast Michigan, West Michigan, and out-of-state cash buyers from Chicago, Cleveland, and Indianapolis are the three biggest demand pools. The buyer is in your sphere already — they just haven't told you they're shopping because they don't realize you can help with a property three hours away.

📍THE UP NORTH referral play

Most metro Michigan agents hear "we're looking at a place near Traverse City" and reflexively hand the buyer to a Northern Michigan agent. That's leaving money on the table. There's a cleaner path that keeps you on the relationship and still respects the local agent's expertise.

1.  Stay on the financing conversation.
The metro agent doesn't need to drive to Traverse City to know what the buyer can afford. Loop me in first. I run the second-home pre-approval, structure the down payment, and hand you a number to work from. The buyer now thinks of you as the person who unlocked the deal — not the agent they Googled in Traverse City.
2.  Pick the Up North partner agent intentionally.
You're not "referring out." You're building a co-broker relationship with one Up North agent who reciprocates with metro buyers later. Pick someone who pays referral fees promptly and treats your client like their own.
3.  Negotiate the split up front, in writing.
Standard Michigan co-broker referral is 25%. If you're staying involved on the buyer side (offer review, deposit logistics, closing oversight), bump it to 35–40%. If the Up North agent runs the whole transaction, 25% is fair. Get it in a referral agreement before the introduction, not after.

Why this matters: the metro agent who keeps an active hand in three or four Up North deals a year is adding $15–30K in referral income on top of their metro pipeline, with no new lead-gen cost. The buyer was already yours.

📝SECOND-HOME FINANCING cheat sheet

When your client says "but I don't know if we can even afford it," here's what you can tell them with confidence on the spot:

10% down minimum on conventional second-home financing (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). 20% down gets the cleanest pricing — but 10% works.

The 100-mile rule is dead. Fannie Mae retired the old "must be at least 50–100 miles from your primary" requirement. A Detroit-area buyer can finance a place on Higgins Lake an hour away as a second home, as long as it's used as one.

Owner must occupy at least part of the year. It can't be a full-time rental. Short-term Airbnb or VRBO rental is allowed when the owner isn't using it, but the property has to remain available for the owner's personal use.

Rate add-on is real but not punishing. Second-home pricing runs roughly 0.500% to 0.875% higher than primary-residence pricing on the same credit profile. On a $500K loan that's roughly $150–275/mo above the primary-home payment — not a deal-killer.

Reserves required. Two to six months of the new payment in liquid reserves, depending on credit score and DTI. Most buyers in this price range already have it.

It does not need to be a "vacation area" to qualify. Underwriters do look for second-home plausibility (lake, resort, second city for work travel), but the standard is reasonable, not rigid.

If anyone tells your client they need 20% down for a second home, they're quoting old guidelines. Send me the question and I'll get you the right answer same-day.

💬THE CLIENT text

Here's the text I'd send today to every past client or sphere contact who has ever mentioned a lake, a cottage, or "we should buy something up north someday":

📋 Copy / paste
"Hey [name] — random thought. You mentioned wanting a place [up north / on a lake / in TC area] at some point. Just saw waterfront sales up there are up 29% this year and inventory's actually moving. If it's still on your mind, summer is the window — fall buyers always wait too long and miss the season. Rob (my lender) can pre-qual you for a second home in about a day. 10% down works on these, not 20% like most people think. Want me to loop him in?"

Forward me the name and a phone number after they reply, and I'll handle the second-home pre-qual conversation in twenty minutes. You stay on the relationship, I handle the financing, and the Up North partner closes the property. Three wins, one referral.

💰THE HIGGINS LAKE deal-saver

Scenario: Southeast Michigan past client, $185K household income, primary mortgage of ~$340K at 6.25%, $80K liquid. Wants a $550,000 lake house on Higgins Lake.

Purchase Price
$550,000
Higgins Lake second home
Down Payment (10%)
$55,000
$495K loan amount
Monthly Payment
~$4,035
Full PITI, second-home pricing at ~7.125%
5-Yr Appreciation
~$77,000
Per Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey, Q2

Structure: $495K loan at ~7.125% · ~$72K cash to close · ~38% combined DTI (well within Fannie limits)

The Pitch to Your Client

"You can buy the lake house this summer without touching retirement. 10% down, the property qualifies, and you can short-term rent it when you're not up there. Rob will run your real numbers in twenty minutes and tell you the price band that works."

The Wealth Math Most Buyers Don't See
Fannie Mae's Q2 Home Price Expectations Survey — a consensus of the top 150 economists in the country — forecasts 2.5% appreciation nationally over the next 12 months and 14% cumulatively over 5 years. On the $550K lake house, that's roughly $13,750 in year-one appreciation and $77,000 in equity over five years — before a single short-term-rental dollar hits the account. The buyer who waits until next summer pays today's price plus that $13,750, and inventory will be tighter, not looser. This isn't a vacation purchase. It's a wealth play with a dock.

Drop me the buyer's rough income, primary-home payment, liquid funds, and the target price band and I'll build the full scenario — qualifying snapshot, projected payment, 5-year appreciation forecast, and short-term-rental income breakeven — co-branded with your name and number. 24-hour turnaround.

🎁FREE CO-BRANDED asset

The Up North Buyer Pre-Approval Card

A co-branded 4x6 card you can hand out at metro listings, drop into email signatures, or mail to past clients all summer:

  • "Thinking about a place up north?" hook on the front
  • 10% down / second-home financing one-liner
  • Your headshot, logo, and direct line on the back
  • QR code to my calendar for the pre-qual

Reply "Up North Card" with your headshot and brokerage logo. Print-ready PDF in your inbox by Wednesday.

Reply "Up North Card" →
The Closer
"Summer in Michigan is twelve weeks long. The buyer who texts you in August is locked out — by then, the good listings are gone, the inspectors are booked, and closing happens after Labor Day when the kids are back in school and the kitchen window has already closed. The buyer who texts you in June closes in August, gets a Labor Day weekend up there, and tells their friends at fall tailgates about the agent who pulled it off. Send me the name. We'll figure out whether the math works."
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