The 1.72 million sellers nobody is calling.

Short version: The Federal Housing Finance Agency estimates that mortgage lock-in prevented roughly 1.72 million home sales between mid-2022 and mid-2024 and pushed prices about 7% higher by choking off supply. What started as rate lock-in has quietly become life lock-in — people aren't stuck in a loan anymore, they're stuck in houses that no longer fit their lives. There's exactly one play that lets a homeowner move and keep the 3% rate, and most agents end the conversation before they ever get to it. Here's the read for your week.

The holiday-shortened week ended with rates roughly unchanged. Today's move is fresh: mortgage bonds (the UMBS 6.0% coupon) are at 101.81, up 13 bps on US/Iran de-escalation chatter — the first meaningful rally in two weeks. MBS Highway's opening position is FLOATING: Dan's read is that there's room for rates to improve, but the peace-deal narrative is fragile. Treat today as a tactical window, not a confirmed trend, until two more sessions hold the gains.

What that means for Michigan: lock-in is a meaningful chunk of why your inventory feels thin even in submarkets where buyer demand is decent. Michigan homeowners who refinanced or purchased in 2020–2021 are sitting on rates between 2.5% and 3.5%. The math of giving that up to move feels brutal, so they don't list. They stay in homes that have outgrown their families, take jobs that require a punishing commute, or delay caring for an aging parent because the move "doesn't work financially."

Most agents hear "I love my 3% rate" and treat it as a conversation-ender. There is exactly one way to move without giving up that rate. If anyone claims a bridge loan or buy-before-sell preserves it, they're wrong — the moment the current home sells, that mortgage gets paid off and the rate goes with it.

The honest line to use with the homeowner: if keeping the 3% rate is what matters most, the rental play is the only path that does it. Everything else trades the rate for something else — timing or offer strength. Don't let anyone pretend otherwise.

Here's the text I'd send this week to every past client and sphere contact you suspect mentioned "wanting to move but loving the rate" sometime in the last 18 months:

That text re-opens a conversation a lot of people had quietly written off. Forward me the name and a phone number after they reply and I'll handle the math conversation in fifteen minutes. You get the listing on the back end — and the move-up purchase.

Scenario: Homeowner has a $280,000 mortgage at 3.25% (P&I ~$1,220/mo). Current home would rent for ~$2,400/mo. They want to buy a $475,000 next home.

The bottom line: instead of dragging $1,220/mo of debt into qualifying, the homeowner walks in with $580/mo of added income. They keep the 3.25% loan, qualify at today's rate, and start a rental portfolio in the process.

Drop me an address, an estimated market rent, and the price range they're shopping and I'll build the full scenario — qualifying income, projected cash flow, total monthly outlay — co-branded with your name and number. 24-hour turnaround.