Issue #7 — The McKenney Minute | Your buyer is waiting for the wrong thing

THE FED WON'T SAVE YOU — your buyer is waiting on the wrong thing

Short version: By now you've heard it on at least one buyer call: "Let's just wait and see what the Fed does." The Federal Reserve meets June 16–17 — the first meeting run by the new chair, Kevin Warsh — and every buyer on the fence has decided that date is the magic word. They think a Fed cut means their mortgage rate drops. It doesn't work that way, and Friday's jobs report just made the wait even longer. This issue is the conversation that turns "let's wait for the Fed" from a deal-killer into a pre-approval — without you having to sound like you're pushing.

📈THE 10-SECOND rate read

30-Year Fixed

~6.50%

Roughly flat week-over-week

10-Year Treasury

~4.50%

FIRMED AFTER HOT JOBS DATA

Friday's May jobs report came in hot — +172,000 jobs against a roughly 85,000 forecast, unemployment unchanged at 4.3%, and the prior two months revised up a combined 93,000. A soft jobs print was the one thing that could have broken rates lower in the near term. The labor market isn't cracking, so bonds firmed and the six-week ceiling held.

This Week's Catalyst

Wednesday June 10, 8:30 AM ET — the May Consumer Price Index (CPI). The last major inflation read before the Fed meets the following week — and it lands during the Fed's pre-meeting quiet period, so the data does the talking. A hot CPI cements "no cut" and pressures rates up; a cool print is the only thing that gives bonds room before June 17.

My take: After Friday's payrolls, the lock bias leans defensive. Buyers closing inside 30 days should lock before Wednesday's CPI — more downside risk than upside reward this week. Buyers 30–60 days out can float into the CPI print with a tight trigger ready to pull. Nobody should be floating through a Fed meeting hoping for a gift. Send me the buyer's closing date and I'll tell you the right window.

🏠THE MICHIGAN number

Michigan Median Sale Price, Year Over Year

+5.3%

Michigan's median sale price is up to roughly $279,000 heading into summer. Homes are still selling at about 101% of list and going pending in around 34 days, with inventory stuck near one-to-two months of supply statewide.

Here's why that number matters this week: the buyer "waiting for the Fed" thinks waiting is free. It isn't. In a market appreciating 5% a year with barely two months of supply, every month on the sidelines is a month the same house costs more — and a month closer to the day rates do improve and every other waiting buyer floods back in at once. Waiting doesn't remove the competition. It schedules it.

🎯HANDLING "let's wait for the Fed"

Most agents lose this one by arguing. The buyer says "we'll wait for the Fed," the agent says "rates might not even drop," it becomes a debate, and the buyer digs in. Don't argue. Educate, then reframe. Here's the four-beat conversation that works:

1. Agree with the instinct — separate the two rates.

"Totally fair to watch the Fed. Quick thing most people don't realize, though — the Fed doesn't actually set mortgage rates. They set the rate banks charge each other overnight. Your mortgage rate tracks the bond market, and the bond market moves weeks ahead of the Fed."

2. The proof they can't argue with.

"They already cut a full point back in late 2024 — and mortgage rates went UP almost a full point over that same stretch. Waiting for the Fed is waiting for the wrong thing."

3. Name what they're really waiting for.

"Here's what actually happens if rates ever do drop: every buyer who's sitting out right now jumps back in the same week. You'd be bidding against all of them for the same houses. Right now you've got less competition, not more."

4. Give them the move that wins either way.

"So here's what I'd do. Get pre-approved with Rob now — that just tells us your number, it's free, and it's not a rate decision. Then we shop while it's quiet and buy when the right house shows up. The rate's its own thing: you lock when you're under contract, and if rates genuinely drop later, you refinance. You're not betting on the Fed — you're covered no matter what they do."

Keep the two decisions separate. Getting pre-approved is about knowing buying power and being ready to move; the rate is a decision made at contract, and again later if a refi pencils out. "Marry the house, date the rate" isn't a slogan — it's the only play that wins whether the Fed cuts, holds, or hikes. The buyer who waits is betting on one outcome. The buyer who buys with a refi option open is hedged on all three.

💬CLIENT TEXT for this week

For the buyer who told you they want to wait until after the June 17 Fed meeting — two short bubbles, not a wall of text, so it reads like you:

📋 Copy & paste

"Hey [name] — quick thing before you pin everything on that Fed meeting. The Fed doesn't actually set mortgage rates. Last time they cut, rates went UP. So the 17th might not move the needle the way you're hoping."

"Honestly the smart play is just to be ready: get pre-approved so we know your number, and buy when the right house shows up. The rate's a separate decision — you lock when we're under contract, and you can always refinance down the road if they drop."

Forward me the name and a number after they reply and I'll handle the pre-approval conversation in fifteen minutes — no pressure, just the real numbers. You keep showing houses while the "waiting" crowd sits out.

💰WHAT WAITING actually costs

Scenario: Buyer approved for a $350,000 home, 10% down, ~6.50% today. They want to wait six months "to see if the Fed brings rates down" — assume the rate is identical in six months.

Buy Now — Price

$350,000

Today's price, today's rate.

Wait 6 Months — Price

~$359,000

5% annual appreciation, prorated.

Cost Of Waiting

~$9,000

In price — even if the rate is identical.

Equity Built While Waiting

The appreciation goes to a seller.

Same rate both ways · ~$900 more down · ~$51/mo higher payment · if rates are higher in December, the gap is worse.

The Pitch to Your Client

"Waiting for the Fed isn't free — in a market going up 5% a year, it's costing you about $1,500 a month in price and lost equity while you wait for a rate cut that history says may not even lower your mortgage. Rob will show you your exact numbers both ways in fifteen minutes."

The Part Most Buyers Miss

Markets currently put the odds of a Fed hike by year-end well above the odds of a cut. The only scenario where waiting wins is the one almost nobody is forecasting — and even then, the cut may not reach the mortgage rate. Waiting is a bet on the least likely outcome.

Drop me the buyer's price range and down payment and I'll build the full "buy now vs. wait" comparison — real rate, real payment, real cost-of-waiting — co-branded with your name and number. 24-hour turnaround.

🎁FREE CO-BRANDED asset

The "Buy Now vs. Wait for the Fed" One-Pager

Built for exactly this objection — hand it across the table when a buyer says "let's wait and see."

The Fed-vs-mortgage-rate explainer in plain English
A clean buy-now-vs-wait comparison at $250K / $350K / $450K
Your headshot, logo, and direct line
QR code to my calendar for a same-week pre-approval

Reply and I'll co-brand it with your details and send it back ready to print.

Reply "Wait Math" →

The Closer

"There's a new chair at the Fed, a meeting on the calendar, and a lot of headlines telling your buyers to hold their breath until June 17. Your job this week isn't to predict what Warsh does — nobody can. It's to be the agent who explains, calmly and correctly, that the Fed was never the thing standing between them and the right house. The agents who can have that conversation are the ones writing offers in June while everybody else waits for a meeting that won't do what their buyers think it will. Send me the name. We'll figure out whether the math works."

Your buyer is waiting for the wrong thing.