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← The McKenney Minute

Rates hit a 6-week high. One Memorial Day weekend left.

Short version: April's inflation report came in hot, oil is over $100 a barrel on the Iran headlines, and the 10-year Treasury just hit a fresh one-year high. Mortgage rates closed Friday at the worst level in six weeks. The Federal Reserve releases meeting minutes Wednesday at 2 PM ET — the only real volatility event on the calendar this week. Memorial Day weekend is six days out. Here's the read for your week.

📈THE 10-SECOND rate read

30-Year Fixed
6.49%
6-WEEK HIGH — up from 6.42% last Monday
10-Year Treasury
4.59%
FRESH 1-YEAR HIGH (Friday close)

Two inflation reports came in above expectations last week. Tuesday's Consumer Price Index hit 3.8% annually — the highest print since May 2023. Producer price data followed Wednesday with the same hot read. Bonds sold off all week and rate sheets followed. Oil over $100 a barrel on the Iran headlines is keeping inflation expectations sticky and giving the Federal Reserve no room to cut.

This Week's Only Catalyst

Wednesday 2:00 PM ET — Federal Reserve meeting minutes from the April 28–29 session. Market is watching for any hint of how worried the Fed is about Iran and inflation. Hawkish (more worried) sells bonds off further. Dovish gets us a small relief rally. Asymmetric — downside risk is bigger than upside.

My take: Lock-bias is no longer "lean" — it's urgent. If your buyer is closing inside 45 days, lock today or first thing tomorrow, before the Wednesday minutes. The asymmetry is brutal right now: hawkish minutes could push us a quarter-point worse by Thursday morning. Dovish minutes might give us 1/8th of a point back, maybe. Bad trade. Anyone closing 45–60 days out should be locked by Friday. Send me the buyer's closing date and I'll tell you the right window to pull the trigger.

💬THE "WHY DID RATES JUMP?" script

You're going to get this question this week from every buyer in your pipeline:

"I thought rates were supposed to drop. Why did they go up?"

Here's the two-sentence answer:

📋 The answer
"Inflation came in hotter than expected last week and the Iran situation is keeping oil prices high — both of those push mortgage rates up, not down. The Federal Reserve is the only thing that can cut rates, and they can't cut while inflation is running this hot."

That's the whole explanation. You don't need to wade into bond yields or coupon stacks. Two sentences, then pivot:

📋 The pivot
"What it means for you specifically: the longer we wait hoping for a drop, the more we're betting against the Federal Reserve's read of the economy. Rob can run your numbers at today's rate and at last week's rate so you can see the actual difference on your specific price range."

Send me the buyer's price range and I'll send back a side-by-side — two-rate comparison, your branding, ready to forward by end of day.

🏠THE MICHIGAN number

Oakland County, Days on Market
23 → 32 days
Oakland County's March 2026 median days on market jumped from 23 days last year to 32 days this year — a 40% slowdown. The cleanest signal yet that the spring tempo softened compared to 2025.
Michigan Active Listings
31,985
Up +4.7% YoY. Statewide supply ~3 months.
MI Listings With Price Drop
24.2%
Up from 22.0% a year ago. Sellers are adjusting.

National context: April existing home sales rose 0.2% despite the consumer-gloom headlines (National Association of Realtors number, released 5/11). The buyers who pulled the trigger weren't waiting for permission — they were running numbers.

Two read-throughs for your week:

Sellers with March or early-April listings are sitting on the wrong price. They listed into a 23-day market and they're now in a 32-day market. Now you've got the year-over-year data point to bring to the pricing conversation — not just a feeling.

Buyers on the fence need the math, not the encouragement. Sales rose in April. Send me a buyer scenario and I'll build it.

📅THE OPEN HOUSE game plan

You get one Saturday with peak Memorial Day traffic before summer travel and lake-house weekends pull buyers off the market through the Fourth of July. Plan your slate this week. Four tactical moves for the next six days:

1.  Pick your hero listing now, not Friday.
Whichever active listing has the best Saturday-traffic potential — curb appeal, the right price band, an address that pulls neighborhood traffic — that's where you spend the weekend. The others get a drive-by or a virtual tour, not your physical body.
2.  Pre-warm your sphere by Thursday.
A short text — not a mass blast, not a flyer — to every sphere contact who's been kicking tires the last 90 days: "Hosting an open house Saturday at [address] — Memorial Day weekend so the foot traffic should be strong. Worth a stop if you're in the area?" Warm bodies in the first 90 minutes anchor the strangers showing up later.
3.  Have a pre-approval play at the table.
Half the people walking through Saturday are not pre-approved. Don't sell them a house — sell them a 10-minute call with a lender Monday. I'll send you a co-branded one-pager you can print and stack at the entry table this week (details below). Capture an email, hand them the card, text me their name Monday morning.
4.  Plan the follow-up before Saturday.
Block 90 minutes on your calendar Tuesday for open-house follow-up. Every name from the sign-in sheet gets a personalized text by Tuesday afternoon — not a blast, not a "thanks for stopping by." Reference one specific thing you talked about. Two of those become showings the following weekend.

💰SELLER-PAID BUYDOWN vs. price cut

Your seller is sitting at Day 45 with no offers, comparable-listing data is moving against them, and they're stuck between "drop the price" and "wait it out." There's a third move most realtors and sellers haven't run the math on: the seller-paid 2-1 temporary buydown. The math gets better the higher rates climb — which is exactly where we are right now.

Scenario: $375,000 listing in Macomb County, buyer 5% down, 30-yr fixed at ~6.50% baseline.

The Move Seller Cost Buyer Yr1 P&I
Drop list $10KList $365K $10,000 ~$2,175/mo
Seller-paid 2-1 buydown4.5% Y1 / 5.5% Y2 / 6.5% after ~$8,700 ~$1,790/mo
Drop list $25KList $350K $25,000 ~$2,085/mo

The bottom line for your seller: A $25,000 price cut costs them $25,000. The seller-paid buydown costs roughly $8,700 and gives the buyer a far bigger Year-1 payment break than even the $25K price drop does. Better buyer experience, less than half the seller cost. And the higher today's rate climbs, the bigger that Year-1 gap becomes — which is exactly what's happening with bonds at one-year highs.

The Pitch to Your Buyer

"The seller is offering to buy down your rate. Instead of paying $2,175 a month, you'd pay $1,790 in Year 1 and $1,970 in Year 2. That's $385 less every month for the first year — and we still refinance whenever rates drop."

Drop me an address and a listing price and I'll build the buydown scenarios for your seller's listing — three loan amounts, three rate scenarios, co-branded with your name and number. 24-hour turnaround, ready for your next listing presentation.

🎁FREE CO-BRANDED asset

The Open House Pre-Approval Card

A printed table card for your Memorial Day weekend open house:

  • 4x6 card stock, both sides, ready to print at any office supply store
  • QR code on the front to a 60-second pre-qualification form
  • "Talk to Rob" call-out with my direct line on the back
  • Your headshot, logo, and listing address on the front

Stack five at the entry table Saturday. Every name we capture becomes a Monday call to a buyer you didn't have last week.

Reply "Open House Card" →
The Closer
"Rates are at a 6-week high. Memorial Day weekend is your last big traffic window before summer. The Federal Reserve speaks Wednesday afternoon. The realtors who lock their pipeline this week and own the open house slate this Saturday win their July business. Send me the buyers, the listings, and the conversations — we'll figure it out together."
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