Short version: mortgage rates dropped a fifth straight week, recovering off the late-March highs and now sitting 58 bps below where they were a year ago. Detroit metro inventory just hit its highest level since 2019. And the Fed prints Wednesday with GDP + PCE Thursday — the biggest data week we've had in months. Here's what matters and what to do with it.
📈THE 10-SECOND rate read
Freddie Mac's 30-year printed 6.23% Thursday — down from 6.30% the prior week, the fifth straight weekly decline since rates spiked in late March. The 10-year Treasury closed Friday at 4.31%, basically pinned ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. Year-ago comp on the 30-year is 6.81%, so buyers shopping today are looking at 58 bps of relief versus April 2025.
What to watch this week: Tuesday is Consumer Confidence (low impact unless it's a big miss), Wednesday is the FOMC decision + Powell presser, and Thursday delivers Q1 GDP advance + PCE inflation — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. PCE is the print that moves rates. Hot = rates pop. Soft = we keep drifting lower.
🏠MICHIGAN at a glance
The data your competition hasn't read yet: the latest MBA Weekly Survey (week ending April 17) shows refinance applications up 52% year-over-year and purchase applications up 14% year-over-year. Total apps jumped 7.9% in a single week. The buyers who said 'I'll wait for spring' are showing up — right now.
📍WHERE BUYERS HAVE leverage
The big regional shift this week: Detroit metro inventory just hit 3.2 months of supply — the highest level since 2019. Active listings up about 15% year-over-year. Median days on market in the metro is now around 61 days, vs 40 statewide.
• Wayne / Oakland / Macomb: Buyer leverage is back. Inspection requests, repair credits, and seller-paid concessions are landing in offers again. If you've got a buyer who lost three deals in 2024, re-engage them this week.
• West Michigan (GR, Kalamazoo, Holland): Still tight at ~1–2 months of supply. The leverage story doesn't apply here — pre-approval letters and clean offers still win.
• Northern Michigan: Seasonal cottage and lakefront listings are arriving. Cash and bridge buyers move first; conventional buyers should be pre-approved before Memorial Day.
🏭READ YOUR BUYER'S employer
A Michigan-specific signal most realtors aren't tracking yet — and it matters at the underwriting desk.
• GM — cut 1,000+ jobs at Factory Zero (Hamtramck) in March, second time in three months as EV production slows.
• Stellantis — rolling temporary layoffs at Warren Stamping, Sterling Stamping, and Sterling Heights. Warren Truck Assembly down through early May.
• Ford — the standout. Ford grew its Michigan workforce +11% year-over-year.
• Tariff watch — 25% tariffs on imported auto parts hit May 3 — could cascade into more production pauses.
The realtor move: When a buyer is auto-employed, ask which manufacturer before you write the offer. A Ford salaried employee right now looks very different to an underwriter than a Stellantis line worker on rolling temp layoffs. Pre-approval letters issued in 2025 may need a refresh — recent paystubs and a current verification of employment can flag risk before underwriting catches it the day before close.
Buyer on temp layoff? FHA and VA can sometimes work with a documented return-to-work letter. Conventional is harder. Send them my way before they tour the next house and we'll figure it out together.
🧾THE PROPERTY TAX pop-up
Best Michigan-specific buyer conversation you can have this week:
The 2026 inflation multiplier dropped to 2.7% (down from 5% in both 2024 and 2025). For existing Michigan homeowners, the capped taxable value can't go up more than 2.7% this year — a real win for current owners.
But here's the part most buyers don't know — and most realtors don't explain:
This conversation alone has saved more than one of my clients from a $300–$500/month escrow surprise. It also positions you as the realtor who actually understands Michigan — most don't have this conversation until the closing disclosure shows up.
🛠️TWO PRO MOVES this week
When you walk a buyer into new construction, the on-site agent rarely volunteers the current incentive package. Michigan builders are running 2/1 buydowns right now that drop Year 1 rates as low as 2.875% — and permanent buydowns into the high 4s. Ask the question: "What's the current incentive package on this home with your preferred lender?" Then send me the term sheet — I'll tell you within an hour whether I can match or beat it before your buyer signs.
When a buyer says they're thinking of buying a rental, the old assumption was they needed spotless tax returns, two years of W-2s, and a perfect debt-to-income picture. Not anymore. We can close an investor purchase on a DSCR loan — no paystubs, no tax returns, no W-2s required. The property's rental income is what qualifies. Self-employed buyers, business owners, retirees with complicated returns — anyone with 20–25% down and a cash-flowing property can close in 30 days. Detroit, Grand Rapids, Lansing and Ann Arbor all pencil right now. Send them my way — you stay the agent of record, I do the lending, everybody wins.
📱THIS WEEK'S CLIENT text
Send this to any buyer who paused their search in the last 6–12 months. Tweak the wording so it sounds like you — a copy-paste-robot text doesn't land.
Want updated payment numbers for a specific price point or a pre-approval refresh? Text me their number and I'll run it directly with them — no hard pull, no commitment.
🎁FREE CO-BRANDED asset
Text me 'SEND IT' and I'll email you a personalized one-pager with your photo and mine showing this week's rates and payment scenarios at $250K, $350K, and $450K. Drop it on social, text it to your sphere, or hand it out at your next open house. Takes me 10 minutes — yours to use all week.
Text Rob "SEND IT" →